Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 20.256914 23.071152 26.106583 29.620472 33.572692 37.876970 42.916263
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 16.188420 20.014797 24.459834 29.991130 36.675067 44.475681 54.254043
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 14.039560 18.294666 23.477026 30.227248 38.759240 49.154151 62.745772
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.180352 16.635004 22.293528 29.968074 40.059723 52.825932 70.141828
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.959450 15.586872 21.681568 30.238883 41.876864 57.075868 78.339643
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.202523 15.049080 21.642978 31.191795 44.572814 62.547750 88.390484
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.167040 13.999206 20.779244 30.888771 45.460478 65.559159 95.201281
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.915109 12.505187 19.142281 29.324064 44.406205 65.746468 98.001107
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.466289 12.153641 19.112504 30.056290 46.656965 70.671204 107.745097
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.083280 11.860828 19.132496 30.838734 48.996364 75.812035 118.037827
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.517636 11.225166 18.569719 30.670164 49.856816 78.774908 125.203746
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.942133 10.519992 17.836986 30.166964 50.139822 80.842111 131.068265
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.515366 10.035672 17.435980 30.187559 51.283058 84.345440 139.435810
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.213733 9.738696 17.318049 30.658207 53.172834 89.112020 150.043693
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.895061 9.380682 17.063674 30.868237 54.622584 93.218858 159.760109
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.527729 8.902002 16.563070 30.614046 55.262159 96.019881 167.459602
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.279289 8.618506 16.378506 30.886947 56.798124 100.349476 177.866480
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.155699 8.558250 16.584914 31.860055 59.594216 106.912950 192.327592
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.858613 8.138323 16.103549 31.550593 60.092997 109.570369 200.220322
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.417701 7.396712 14.968798 29.954631 58.170692 107.920913 200.530857
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.310208 7.316647 15.080423 30.701515 60.566076 113.952527 214.615587
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.214673 7.252731 15.216838 31.499650 63.092336 120.323249 229.578925
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.014869 6.952971 14.867534 31.327700 63.770147 123.375194 238.665497